Labor Markets and Monetary Policy

Headline employment numbers have been consistent with previous recoveries from recession. Behind the headlines, however, there are troubling data that suggest that the recovery of labor markets is weaker than what would be suggested by prior experience. In particular, labor force participation is weaker than expected, and the duration of unemployment has been longer. This paper describes the dimensions of the problems, their implications, and issues concerning whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could have done more to forestall them—particularly with respect to its Large Scale Asset Purchases program.     

Advertising by Medical Professionals—A Healthy Outlook

The opening up of the professions to advertising does not yet include the medical profession, and the author argues that this exclusion is unwarranted. Far from being against the public interest, he suggests that patients are not only capable of using more information, but that improvements in medical practice will flow from this. The experience of the legal—and other professions—following the relaxation of advertising rules is discussed together with the problems arising. The conclusion is that advertising by the medical profession is worth at least a trial and that liberty to advertise be extended to consultants and hospitals.     

Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances

This study examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) for the carbon emission allowance market within the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during the Phase I and the Phase II, using both daily and weekly data over the 2005–2009 period. We analyze the MDH for spot prices negotiated on BlueNext, European Energy Exchange and Nord Pool along with futures prices negotiated on BlueNext and European Climate Exchange, using the new variance ratio tests developed by Kim (2009) and the generalized spectral test proposed by Escanciano and Velasco (2006). For the Phase I, the results show that the spot price changes of these three markets are predictable, suggesting the possibility of abnormal returns through speculation, except during the period April 2006 to October 2006, namely after the compliance break and before the ECs of stricter NAP II. Finally, we find that the CO₂ spot and futures price changes are unpredictable during the Phase II because we failed to reject the MDH based on both daily and weekly data. Thus, these markets are found to be weak-form efficient.     

Notes on some present day Questions regarding Mortality

Abstract

In the absence of any definite development of actuarial science in Great Britain which would be a suitable subject for this paper I considered that the most useful course would be to discuss some of the problems which are at present exercising my own mind, and no doubt the minds of many of my colleagues. Probably, many of these questions are akin to others which arise in other countries, so that their discussion at a meeting such as this may prove of mutual interest, while even if they are peculiar to ourselves, a disclosure of our doubts and difficulties will indicate the directions in which future developments may be expected. I must, however, emphasize that any views expressed are purely personal, and do not in any way pretend to represent a consensus of British actuarial opinion. Throughout this paper only Ordinary (as opposed to Industrial) business in considered.     

Astroturfing Global Warming: It Isn’t Always Greener on the Other Side of the Fence

Astroturf organizations are fake grassroots organizations usually sponsored by large corporations to support any arguments or claims in their favor, or to challenge and deny those against them. They constitute the corporate version of grassroots social movements. Serious ethical and societal concerns underline this astroturfing practice, especially if corporations are successful in influencing public opinion by undertaking a social movement approach. This study is motivated by this particular issue and examines the effectiveness of astroturf organizations in the global warming context, wherein large corporate polluters have an incentive to set up astroturf organizations to undermine the importance of human activities in climate change. We conduct an experiment to determine whether astroturf organizations have an impact on the level of user certainty about the causes of global warming. Results show that people who used astroturf websites became more uncertain about the causes of global warming and humans’ role in the phenomenon than people who used grassroots websites. Astroturf organizations are hence successful in promoting business interests over environmental protection. In addition to the multiple business ethics issues it raises, astroturfing poses a significant threat to the legitimacy of the grassroots movement.     

Valuing medieval annuities: Were corrodies underpriced?

Medieval bishops condemned and restricted the sale of corrodies (a type of annuity), partly on the grounds of their perceived unprofitability. The available data on the profitability of corrodies is limited and little analysed, and the episcopal condemnation of corrodies has been adopted by modern researchers. After recognising the difficulties, this paper applies an annuity pricing model to study corrody pricing. Given various assumptions, contrary to the established view, it is argued that the sale of corrodies was financially profitable for institutions. Finally, some reasons are considered for the negative attitude of contemporary and historical opinion towards the sale of corrodies.